Vegas Odds World Cup Finals

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• Betting Odds World Cup Final
• Vegas Odds World Cup Finals Odds

What does the gambler do when 2 key maxims of sports betting seem to cancel each other out?

For instance, my “lock” of the week was England to advance past Croatia in Wednesday’s World Cup semifinal. To anyone who lost money on that recommendation, I sincerely apologize for the lousy call.

To be fair, I also called the market a “nudge your stake upward” opportunity, not an ante-up, all-in, 5-unit splurge. Any working-class punter who bet a Benji or more on Three Lions was probably nudging a little too hard.

My prediction record for Russia 2018 stands at 8 winning picks and 7 lost bets, including 3-way and 4-way markets. That’s not bad. At the same time, hopefully even our most loyal readers are not at a perfectly-matched 8-7 after 4 weeks of the World Cup. The handicapper’s advice should be taken as a lead-in to one’s own analysis, not a substitute for it.

The France vs Croatia final brings up another pair of sports-gambling principles that appear to be in conflict. Both picks to lift the trophy involve a trap-door for the bettor to fall through. Where’s the solid ground?

Rule #1: Don’t believe in destiny. The Croatians began the tournament at long odds to even reach the final. Some in the media will undoubtedly call Sunday’s underdogs a team of destiny after 3 dramatic extra-time/penalty-kick victories in the knockout round. But “destiny” is a superstition. FIFA is not a romance novel, and gold medals are won in final performances, not chapters.

Rule #2: Familiarity doesn’t equal success. France’s Kylian Mbappe is a sensation, the most heralded teenage footballer in the world. But the ball doesn’t read anyone’s press clippings.

1. The Vegas odds on the 2014 World Cup Final shows Germany as a heavy favorite. That team’s dismantling of Brazil in semifinals play is evidently still on the minds of line makers. Bovada is the biggest and most popular legitimate online sports betting site that supports legal US action online. And at the time of this writing, Germany stood as.
2. The Wynn Las Vegas sometimes posts opening odds for the Pegasus World Cup a month before what was for a time, the world’s richest race. In 2021, the race is scheduled for January 23rd at Gulfstream Parkin Florida. Following the release of the official morning line odds, below are the favored picks for this event from racing analyst John Mucciolo.
3. World Cup Betting Odds. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. All you need to bet.

The 2021 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship is underway with the group stages nearing an end. The best junior hockey tournament in the world is being held at Rogers Place in Edmonton and the host Canadian team is the favorite at sportsbooks to win the hardware. See Odds Shark’s Best NHL Sites. The final is set for the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup from France. On Wednesday, the Netherlands punched its tickets to the final and will face the betting favorite to win it all, USA. Women’s National Team will be the betting favorite to win Sunday’s final and hoist the cup, opening at -600 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

The best reason to wager on the (-220) favorites is France’s team speed, not name-brand recognition. But does Croatia have the talent and resolve to pull off one last miracle in Moscow?

France National Team: Analyzing the Moneyline Favorites

Les Bleus have roared unbeaten through 6 matches in Russia, sporting a fine goalkeeper in Hugo Lloris, a spritely midfield that has controlled the play with speed and timely steals, and 2 of the best forwards in the sport in Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann.

But it’s easy to win when the opponent is athletically less-superior. In many ways, what the French were able to do in the semifinal against Belgium was more impressive due to the match being so evenly-contested.

Belgium’s captain Eden Hazard came within a whisker of scoring several times in the 1st half. Lloris and made a terrific save on Toby Alderweireld just to keep the semifinal scoreless. With the French forward line all but neutralized, it was center-back Samuel Umtiti’s header in the 2nd frame that carried the day.

France’s backline has been deadly for opposing keepers in general. But the squad’s midfield has not contributed a single goal in the World Cup. Skipper Didier Deschamps deserves credit for putting defenders in position to make unexpected scoring contributions while not sacrificing the side’s ability to keep opposing strikers off the board.

Blazers set Moscow Ablaze with Tremendous Upset

The England vs Croatia semifinal was another tale of 2 halves. When Kieran Trippier scored on a free kick in just the 5th minute of the match in Russia’s capital, it appeared that the Three Lions were moving on to the final against France as most pundits had expected them to.

That was before a couple of key factors began to work against the English in the 2nd frame. Croatian manager Zlatko Dalić instructed the squad to begin sending long passes into space on the forward wings, trusting that athletes like Ivan Perišić and Andrej Kramarić would catch up to the football and create dangerous scoring opportunities.

Perišić scored in the 68th minute, sending the Croatian contingent at Luzhniki Stadium into a frenzy. Talk going into the semifinals centered around which squads were the least fatigued and able to play 90 or 120 minutes without mental errors. But the Croatians played the final 50+ minutes of the match like a team that had just stepped onto the pitch for its first outing.

Then the English began to tire. Raheem Sterling had mesmerized the crowd with quick runs up the middle of the pitch in the 1st half, but by the final 20 minutes of regulation time, his chances with the ball became shorter and less threatening. Harry Kane was reduced to a one-dimensional forward waiting for passes that never came. England’s formidable defense was exposed by Croatia’s aggressive outside rushes and started looking like the slower and less-efficient of the 2 backlines.

Keeper Jordan Pickford has played his heart out in Russia, but he was unable to hold off the onslaught. Mario Mandžukić found the net at the 109th minute to send the underdogs to the final.

The biggest revelation of the England-Croatia match wasn’t the Blazers’ blazing attack but the squad’s goalkeeping.

Veteran Danijel Subasic spent over 12 years in waiting to become Croatia’s #1 goalkeeper in major international tournaments. His first World Cup as the side’s backstop began with terrific reviews, as the 33 year old kept clean sheets against swift Nigeria and the mighty Argentines. But he was soon-to-be banged-up in the knockout stage, and some pundits predicted that the starting role vs England would go to backup GK Lovre Kalinić.

His physical condition wasn’t the only thing that might have kept the keeper from playing in the (2nd) biggest match of his life. Subasic still blames himself for the freak death of former teammate Hrvoje Custic in a 2008 match in which the late midfielder slammed his head into a concrete wall while chasing a long goal-kick. The Croatian stopper wore a T-shirt onto the FIFA pitch in Russia that bore the likeness of, and an inspiring message dedicated to, his fallen friend. Officials warned of a possible suspension.

Subasic has been vindicated as he not only took the pitch but shined brightly on Wednesday. The keeper kept the English attack at bay until his side wore down the Three Lions in the final hour and 15 minutes, helping to earn his country’s maiden appearance in a World Cup final.

France vs Croatia: World Cup Final Proposition Odds

I’ll compare the 2 sides from a talent-and-tactics perspective and make predictions on the fixture’s main markets in just a minute. But first, let’s look at a tasty prop-market for the final in Moscow.

The most intriguing scoreboard-prop for the France-Croatia final can be found in the odds-to-lead for either side after 15 or 30 minutes. Since it is unlikely that a soccer match will result in a goal every 15:00 or even per each 30:00, odds are short on a “draw” result 1/3rd or 2/3rds into the 1st half. That leaves high-payoff Vegas lines on both sides’ chances to tally in the early-going.

France’s odds to score and lead after 15:00 are (+500), a wager that might just carry a lot of value. The Blazers are in uncharted territory from a psychological point of view.

Don’t make the mistake of thinking they’ll be anxious or disorganized – the Croatians have already proven how steely the squad can be while fighting back from deficits against fan-favorited opponents in Russia.

However, sometimes it’s possible for an upstart side to take the pitch overly confident, overly poised. It doesn’t help to be matched against an elite side that presents a far-different, if not objectively tougher, challenge than earlier rounds have provided.

Croatia was able to eek past a workmanlike Russia squad in the quarterfinals after surviving Denmark in a similar penalty-kick scenario in the Round of 16. England is no doubt a premier opponent, one of the best in the world, but the underdogs haven’t had to face a group of midfielders and forwards with the type of firepower and pace that France brings to the table.

No amount of mental preparation can overcome the shock of trying to catch grease-lightning instead of slow-rolling thunder. It’s easy to imagine Mbappe cutting into the box around a stand-still Croatia backline in the first 5 or 10 minutes before defenders can adjust to his breathtaking runs.

France is a terrific wager to lead after 30 minutes at (+250), and might be an even smarter prop bet to lead-after-15 on the basis of Mbappe’s speed and Griezmann’s experience in big matches.

For the same reasons, “Donatello” is also a solid score-and-win prop wager wherever the odds are (+300) or longer on the result.

2018 World Cup Final: Match-up Analysis and Predictions

France is too nimble and flexible in the midfield for Croatia to repeat its wing-attack with the same success as the newcomers found against England. Deschamps won’t mind if his midfielders continue to miss the mark with long shots so long as they can defend kick-and-chase tactics and douse the Blazers’ fiery rushes on the outside.

The French skipper’s asymmetrical formations and defensively-active forwards should help France keep a clean sheet for at least the first 45 minutes or until the Croatians find another surprise tactic that works. Mbappe plays beyond his years when racing back to win contested balls, and his teammates combine to form a swarming defensive unit when ahead by a goal or more.

Croatia’s best opportunity to win will be to close ranks, hope for another gem from Subasic, and get a counterattack going against a frustrated France in the 2nd half. France’s best strategy is to keep solid numbers around the center circle and wait patiently for their own counters, plugging-up the underdog’s attack before it reaches the box.

Those tactical concerns are probably why the O/U line is set at a meager (2). No Asian Handicap from Sportsbetting.ag this time – bookies think this match ought to be low-scoring.

But that analysis could be overlooking a couple of factors.

Vegas Odds World Cup Finals Standings

Mbappe’s chance to catch Croatia flat-footed and score early should raise the handicapper’s average of how many goals should be scored in the match. Second, neither side’s attack appears to be suffering from fatigue or mental breakdowns at this late stage. Croatia’s injury concerns have clearly been overblown, and the French have had it relatively easy in the 2nd halves of knockout fixtures against Argentina and Uruguay.

Chances are at least 75% that 2+ goals will be scored on Sunday.

Vegas Odds World Cup Finals Results

Vegas Odds World Cup Finals

As for the gold medals? If this match were played 4 times over, France would likely win 3 out of the 4. But the French odds to lift the trophy are set at an almost-prohibitive (-220). That’s not much of a payoff to cap your World Cup betting experience.

Vegas Odds World Cup Finals Cup

Lloris is getting stronger between the posts as the tournament wears on, giving Deschamps’ side the opportunity to press counterattacks and involve a dangerous play-making backline without fear of giving up an early goal. It is likely that France will go into the break leading 1-0 or 2-0, prompting Croatia to go-for-broke in the 2nd frame and leave wide swaths of the pitch undefended.

That should result in a 2-1 or 3-1 final with no chance for more extra-time or penalty-kick heroics.

Betting Odds World Cup Final

Thank you for clicking Legit Gambling Sites throughout the World Cup. Be sure to check out our preview of Saturday’s 3rd-place fixture between England and Belgium, and good luck with your bets!

Vegas Odds World Cup Finals Odds