Kentucky Derby Predictions 2015
Kentucky Derby Predictions 2015 Results
- 2015 Kentucky Derby picks and preview. John Gregg Expert. 25th April, 2015. A Set small text size A Set the default text size A Set large text size. 10 Join the conversation.
- The Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses. The First Saturday in May. The first leg of the Triple Crown. The finest two minutes in sport. Handicapping it though, is a mess. You are presented with.
Take your sweet time checking out our comprehensive coverage of the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports,” with our complete Kentucky Derby picks as well as the experts’ Kentucky Derby sleeper picks. sc:MultiSportArticles 2015 Kentucky Derby Experts Picks and Predictions KentuckyDerby.com. 27 days away from the Run for the Roses, HRN's Managing Editor, Brian Zipse sets some early odds for the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Current 2015 Kentucky Derby Odds - Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby 2021.
27 days away from the Run for the Roses, HRN's Managing Editor, Brian Zipse sets some early odds for the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Horse | Comments | |
1 | Dortmund 4-1 | The strapping son of Big Brown is getting better. It's been a while since we've enjoyed an undefeated winner of the Run for Roses. Next - Kentucky Derby |
2 | Carpe Diem 5-1 | He's done absolutely nothing wrong for trainer Todd Pletcher to this point in his career, but the Kentucky Derby will be his toughest test yet. Next - Kentucky Derby |
3 | American Pharoah 5 -1 | With this one around, Baffert might have the two most talented colts of the crop. He needs a little more conditioning under his belt, he should get that next week in Hot Springs. Next - Arkansas Derby |
4 | Firing Line 12 -1 | What might we think of the Sunland Derby winner if not for two narrow losses to Dortmund at Los Alamitos and Santa Anita? Next - Kentucky Derby |
5 | Materiality 12-1 | He's only won half as many times as Dortmund, but likewise, the sky is the limit for this undefeated son of dual classic winner, Afleet Alex. Next - Kentucky Derby |
6 | Mubtaahij 12-1 | Has been nothing but impressive in five dirt races in Dubai, plus he has run farther than anyone. Class and ability to travel will be tested on the first Saturday in May. Next - Kentucky Derby |
7 | International Star 15-1 | Determined stretch runner proved to be the top dog in New Orleans. If he is good enough, his ability to rally through openings will come in handy at Churchill Downs. Next - Kentucky Derby |
8 | Frosted 15-1 | The real Frosted came back after McLaughlin changed just about everything under the sun. His task gets tougher in Louisville. Next - Kentucky Derby |
9 | Upstart 15-1 | *Two tough to swallow defeats in his last couple at Gulfstream. Battle tested New York-bred could improve away from Florida. Next - Kentucky Derby |
10 | Far Right 25-1 | Back-to-back stakes winner at Oaklawn Park will get the chance to demonstrate what he can do next against the likes of the Pharoah. Next - Arkansas Derby |
11 | Stanford 25-1 | After being well beaten by Materiality in Florida, the Pletcher runner came back with a much improved effort at Fair Grounds. Improving at the right time? Next - Kentucky Derby |
12 | Danzig Moon30-1 | More likely a Queen's Plate champ than a Kentucky Derby winner, but the son of Malibu Moon did run a sneaky good race in the Blue Grass.Next - Kentucky Derby |
13 | War Story 30-1 | No longer my personal dark horse, the Tom Amoss runner will need to turn things around at 10 furlongs, and at Churchill, to make any real noise. Next - LKentucky Derby |
14 | One Lucky Dane 30-1 | He was no match for Dortmund yesterday, but on the other hand, he was very game down the lane, and is likely to improve in his third race back. Next - Kentucky Derby |
15 | El Kabeir 30-1 | May have been too far back off tepid fractions in the Wood, but you have to wonder if the consistent colt is just not quite good enough. Next - Kentucky Derby |
16 | Itsaknockout 40-1 | The benefactor of Upstart's DQ in the Fountain of Youth came back flatter than a pancake in the Florida Derby. Would even a nice bounce back be enough? Next - Kentucky Derby |
17 | Tencendur 40-1 | Ran a very solid Wood Memorial to be clearly second best. It will be nice to see the solid horseman, George Weaver, in with a Derby horse. Next - Kentucky Derby |
18 | Madefromlucky 40-1 | Another from Team Pletcher, he improved last time in the Rebel, and will need another move forward on Saturday to look like a threat in Louisville. Next - Arkansas Derby |
19 | The Truth or Else 40-1 | McPeek trained horse deserves another shot after running into a sloppy track in the Rebel, and still looks like an interesting dark horse to me. Next - Arkansas Derby |
20 | Ami's Flatter 40-1 | Consistent colt is another one who probably is more realistic to factor in the Queen's Plate rather than the Run for the Roses. Next - Kentucky Derby |
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Kentucky Derby Predictions 2015 2020
Mr. Z is the worst of the three horses that Zayat Stables is aiming for the Kentucky Derby. First, though, you can't have too much sympathy for Zayat - or any other owner who is in position to start three horses in the biggest race there is. Second, there is no shame in being third best behind the decent El Kabeir and the truly brilliant American Pharoah. So, can Mr. Z eclipse his stablemates and win the Kentucky Derby? Oddsmakers don't think so - at 85/1 in early futures action at BetOnline he is tied for the longest odds in the field. That's not that flattering.
Ideally, the horse probably should be looking for a different, and slightly softer, spot. This is the Derby, though, so any horse with the breeding and the potential - and enough points to get in the field - is more likely to be given the chance than not. After all, if horses like Mine That Bird and Giacomo have taught us anything it's that any horse that is entered can win on any given day.
Arkansas Derby: This race was fine. Not great but fine. He got a good start and then contented himself with rating off the too fast early pace. He was right behind stablemate American Pharoah. He made a nice move around the second turn and looked good. When it came to the stretch, though, he flattened out slightly and was caught before the line by Far Right. He was in an entirely different class than American Pharoah - like everyone else - but he measured up solidly with the rest of the field. There is no particular thing about the race that I can complain about too much, but it didn't really get my pulse racing in anyway, either. Before the race I thought he was a nice enough horse but not a spectacular one. Now? Pretty much the same.
Prior experience: You really can't complain about a lack of experience with this guy - the Derby will be his 13th career start. To accurately judge this horse you have a decision to make - is winning important to you or is consistently solid good enough? He broke his maiden the first time out - at Churchill Downs. Since then, though, he does not have a win. Every race has been a stakes, though, and he has finished in the Top 3 in eight of 11 of them. He's not quite good enough, but he always finds a way to get up for a piece. At the price he is likely to go off at in the Derby he could key a very big exotic payoff if he could do the same in the Derby. One nice thing has been his versatility. He has run on the lead, but he doesn't need it. He can rate nicely and has even done well starting way off the pace. The biggest concern, though, is that by the time a horse has had this much experience we don't often see a massive move forward. What we have seen is probably closer to what we will get than with less-experienced horses. That is a problem, because what we have seen isn't quite good enough.
Trainer: I could go on all day about D. Wayne Lukas. He's a legend - to say the least. He has won the Derby four times and owns the record for the most Triple Crown victories with 14. Starting in 1994, Lukas won an incredible six straight Triple Crown races. He is 79 years old now, and for much of the last decade or so it seemed he was well past his prime. He has had a renaissance the last couple of years, though, winning the Preakness in 2013 with Oxbow and adding two Breeders' Cup wins to his total in the last three years. He knows how to win and is in his best in Triple Crown races. Anything is possible with Lukas. His influence on this race extends beyond his own horse this year - former assistants Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Mike Maker could have as many as seven horses between them in the field.
Jockey: The horse has had seven different jockeys over his career and a different rider for each of his last six outings. At this point it doesn't much matter who rides him - he is used to change. Ramon Vazquez rode him for the first time last time out and was criticized by the trainer for moving a bit too early. It's not yet clear what Lukas will do for this race, but I am not too worried about it. He could do better than Vazquez, though.
Breeding: Like fellow Derby hopeful Danzig Moon, this horse is a son of Malibu Moon. That horse also sired 2013 Derby winner Orb, and he is a son of the great Belmont winner A.P. Indy, and grandson if Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, so there is stamina on the sire side. His damsire is Storm Cat, who is also the damsire of current superstar Shared Belief among many others. The dam side probably trends a bit shorter than the Derby distance, but it could be worse. This isn't the most perfect Derby breeding, but it isn't a disaster, either. The horse has bigger issues to overcome than his blood.
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