Betting Line Trump Impeachment

• Bookies Odds On Trump Impeachment
• Betting Odds Of Trump Impeachment Conviction
• Current Odds On Trump Impeachment

Every US President faces talk of impeachment at some point during their term(s) in office, but impeachment betting odds are usually reserved for when there is a serious Congressional push to launch an inquiry or bring charges against a sitting head of state.

Within a week of Trump supporters violently storming the Capitol, the House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump. The final tally on January 13 was 232-197 and included 10 Republican votes in favor of impeachment, making it the most bipartisan impeachment in US history.House Democrats filed a single article of impeachment, charging the former commander-in-chief with “incitement of an. First, impeachment is a 1.4 chance. To land, this bet requires the House of Representatives passing one article of impeachment. Note Trump does not need to be removed from office – that would come later in the process. Democrats currently hold a majority in the. President Donald Trump's week of legal peril has significantly boosted the odds of his impeachment by the House of Representatives, at least as far as the betting markets are concerned. Betting data shows that a Democrat is more likely to win in 2024, yet currently, Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite to win the presidency in 2024 at 20%, with Biden at 15% and Trump at 7. President Trump is now priced at -300 to be impeached at the European exchange Betfair. That moneyline wager means you’d need to bet $300 to win $100. The “No” odds are +250, meaning a $100 bet wins you $250. Crowd-sourced platform Smarkets is pricing a similar outcome.

Of course, when that happens, impeachment odds become the most popular and sought-after betting lines at legal online sportsbooks, and that’s been the case in 2019 as Donald Trump faces down serious allegations of impeachable offenses.

Still, because impeachment is an intensely political process with ramifications on both sides of the aisle and with the public at large (no matter which way the proceedings go), bettors are often extremely tempered in their analysis of whether or not a President will be impeached. That said, as with all legal political betting, there is much to be gleaned about a President’s impeachment chances by looking to the odds boards.

Is It Legal To Bet On Presidential Impeachment Odds?

It is largely considered to be legal to wager on Presidential impeachment odds if you use an offshore betting site to do so. Despite the growing number of US-regulated online and brick-and-mortar sportsbooks popping up across the country, you will not find political betting odds at these locations.

This is because most state governments either disallow or discourage sportsbooks from offering election odds. Fortunately, political betting has always been popular at offshore sites, and those remain the only places to find odds on politics and government-related issues.

Important note: In two US states – Connecticut and Washington – there are laws on the books that ban online betting of any kind. That said, these laws are considered unenforceable, and neither state has ever arrested or fined any resident for gambling over the Internet. Still, if you live in CT or WA, we advise you to follow local and all federal betting laws and only bet online at your own risk.

Best Sportsbooks Offering Impeachment Betting Lines

Betting On Donald Trump's Impeachment Odds

Typically, you can bet on Donald Trump’s impeachment odds at any reputable offshore sports betting site, but there are no betting lines posted for his impeachment chances at the moment. That is largely due to the forthcoming 2020 Presidential election, where Democratic Party leaders are hopeful that US voters will oust Trump and alleviate the need for them to begin the impeachment process again.

Our political prop bets guide is a good tool for exploring prop bets such as impeachment odds, and other factors surrounding the 2020 Presidential election. This prob bet tutorial will properly prepare bettors for when impeachment odds eventually reappear at political sportsbooks.

Current Odds for Donald Trump to be Impeached Again

There are no current odds for Donald Trump being impeached at major offshore legal sports betting sites because of the upcoming Presidential election in November. Democrats, and even some Republicans, like US Senator Mitt Romney, are hopeful that Joe Biden will win the Presidency and alleviate the need for impeachment hearings to begin again.

Will Donald Trump be impeached again? If he wins his reelection bid in 2020, he almost certainly will face impeachment hearings in the US House. If and when that happens, top political sportsbooks will produce odds that will allow bettors to wager the outcome.

Will Biden complete first term as U.S. President?

• Yes -165
• No +125

Will New Articles Of Impeachment Be Filed

• Before Jan 20, 2021 - Yes -220
• Before Jan 20, 2021 - No +155

What Is a Presidential Impeachment?

Impeachment is a largely misunderstood concept. Many people think that impeachment means that a President will be removed from office, but that’s actually never happened. Impeachment is a legal accusation of criminal malfeasance, and it is purely a political process. An analogy to Presidential impeachment is, for private citizens, a criminal or civil charge in a court of law. And like every person in America, once impeached, the President gets due process before removal can ever happen.

Throughout all of US history, only two Presidents have ever been impeached: Bill Clinton (1998-1999) and Andrew Johnson (1868). Richard Nixon was set to face impeachment in 1974, but he resigned the Presidency before any charges were brought.

How Does the Impeachment Process Work?

The Presidential impeachment process is simple enough, and it includes the following fundamental procedural steps:

1. The US House of Representatives opens an impeachment inquiry against a sitting President after reports or evidence that said President has committed an illegal action that falls under the umbrella of “Treason, Bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.”
2. The US House takes a vote on whether or not to bring Articles of Impeachment against the President. A simple majority is required to officially bring such charges.
3. Once the Articles of Impeachment are passed, the US Senate takes over, conducting a trial of the President. This trial is overseen by the Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court.
4. If the President is found guilty via a two-thirds supermajority vote in the Senate, he or she is immediately removed from office.
5. The Vice President then becomes the President of the United States.
6. If the VP is also impeached, the House Speaker would become President.

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What are the chances of US President Donald Trump being removed from office if the Democrats do retake the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, or at least make significant gains?

These days, you can bet on anything in politics, including which White House Cabinet member might be next to leave and how many Saudi Arabia tweets Trump will send this week.

In politics, as in everything else, one should follow the money. If the betting markets give good odds, surely that means it is likely to happen, right?

Not quite. Suppose a fictitious horse, Tempestuous Daniels (named after Stormy Daniels, naturally), is running in the Melbourne Cup with odds of $3, and that some billionaire puts $10 million on her to win.

Bookmakers do not want any further bets on the horse, otherwise, if she were to win, they’d go bankrupt. So, they’ll shorten the odds to $1.01 to discourage further bets. The horse is now surely the favourite, but not due to its intrinsic chances of winning.

Odds of impeachment in the House are quite good

So, what of impeachment? The US Constitution allows for the impeachment of a president for “treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanours.” The House of Representatives can vote with a simple majority to impeach a president. The impeached leader is then tried in the Senate. If two-thirds of the Senate find him or her guilty, the president is removed from office.

There are 435 voting members of the House, and 100 Senators. This means that a successful impeachment needs 218 votes in the House and a successful removal needs 67 votes in the Senate. Currently, the Republicans control both chambers, making impeachment of Trump extremely unlikely.

Read more: Why Trump hasn't been impeached – and likely won't be

But will the chances of impeachment change if the Democrats retake the House after the November midterm elections? The US political website FiveThirtyEight.com publishes daily forecasts of all the races and the probability of each party winning control of the House and Senate.

For example, the site predicts the Democrats have an 83.6% chance of retaking the House, while the Republicans have a 16.4% chance of retaining control (as of time of publishing). There’s a 1.7% chance the Republicans will maintain a majority of one with 218 seats; a 1.7% chance they will retain a 219-216 majority; a 1.6% chance of 220-215, and so forth.

To make the following analysis easier, we shall assume that all Democrats will always vote to impeach (in the House) and vote for guilty (in the Senate). Given this assumption, we can boil the analysis down to one number: the odds of any given Republican crossing the floor (or crossing the aisle, as they say in America) and voting against Trump.

We’ll call this probability “p”. We’ll also make the assumption that the decision of any given Republican to cross floor does not affect the decision of any other Republican to cross the floor. That is, we make the assumption that the probabilities of crossing the floor are independent.

To explain the concept of independence, consider the following. The odds of rolling a five on a standard die are 1-in-6; the odds of drawing a diamond from a standard pack of cards are 1-in-4. The die has nothing to do with the cards. Therefore, these probabilities are independent of one another.

What, then, are the odds of rolling a five and then drawing a diamond? Only one-sixth of the time do we roll a five, and only one-quarter of the time do we draw a diamond. Therefore, the odds of doing both are 1-in-24.

Read more: Why Trump hasn't been impeached – and likely won't be

Bookies Odds On Trump Impeachment

Let’s return to the election predictions. Let’s also assume the Republicans retain a slim 218-217 majority in the House. We don’t care whether it is Peter who crosses the floor, or Mabel, or John. What we want is the number of ways of choosing one Republican to cross the floor, and all 217 others to stay loyal. There are 218 such ways for this to happen.

Doing the calculations, Fred will cross the floor with probability p. Other Republicans will stay loyal with probability 1-p. Therefore, the odds of Fred crossing the floor and all other Republicans staying loyal is p(1-p)…(1-p), with 217 (1-p)s in the product.

Similarly, we can figure out the odds of two (or more) Republicans crossing the floor. We need to figure out how many ways we can choose two “p's (to cross the floor) and 216 (1-p)s (to stay loyal). This brings us to an area of mathematics known as combinatorics.

Crunching the numbers, we arrive at a long expression that gives us the odds of a Trump impeachment where the only variable is p.

Suppose there was even just a 1% chance of a Republican crossing the floor, that is, that p = 1%. Then the probability of impeachment according to these calculations is 83%. If p = 3%, this jumps to 90%; if p = 5% then there is a 95% chance that Trump becomes the third impeached president after Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.

Therefore, even if there is only a small chance of any given Republican crossing the floor, there is a very high chance of impeachment.

But… odds in the Senate are far longer

What, though, about a guilty verdict in the Senate? Remember, you need 67 senators to vote in favour of removing a president from office.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Republicans currently have a 81% chance of retaining control of the Senate. The Democrats face very long odds to get even close to the 67 senators needed to impeach – they have a 0.1% chance to reach even 56 seats. Even then, they would need 11 Republicans to cross the floor – a very tall order.

This makes a guilty verdict almost impossible to achieve.

For Trump to be removed, he needs to be impeached by the House and then found guilty by the Senate. Assume these events occurring independently of one another.

Betting Odds Of Trump Impeachment Conviction

If the odds of any given Republican (in either the House or Senate) defecting were 1-in-4, there would only be a 7% chance of Trump’s removal. Even if this rose to a staggeringly unbelievable 1-in-3 – meaning one-third of Republicans would try to remove their own President – the odds of removal are still not quite even money.

Current Odds On Trump Impeachment

This article is based on a talk given in the G.S. Watson Annual Lecture at La Trobe University, Bendigo.